This question often arises whenever oil prices fall.
The barrel loses several dollars on international markets, financial reports announce a decline in Brent, and yet, the Moroccan driver arriving the next day at the gas station often finds the same price.
Conversely, when a geopolitical crisis abruptly drives up oil prices, it often seems that this increase reaches the pump much faster.
Thus raises a legitimate question: how is the price of a liter of diesel or gasoline actually calculated in Morocco?
The answer is more complex than a simple conversion of the barrel price into dirhams.
Between the crude oil quoted in London and the fuel that enters the tank of a car in Casablanca, Rabat, or Marrakech, there are several markets, numerous costs, and especially several time lags.
First confusion: Morocco does not buy its diesel at Brent prices.
When the media announces that "oil is at $100" or that it has just decreased by 5%, they are generally referring to Brent,one of the main global benchmarks for crude oil.
But Brent is not diesel.
Nor is it gasoline.
It is crude oil that still needs to be refined to produce various fuels.
To analyze the prices in Morocco, the Competition Council does not directly compare pump prices to Brent.
It primarily uses international prices of refined products — diesel and gasoline — observed in the North-West European market, particularly in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp area.
These so-called CIF quotations are a key reference for supply contracts of Moroccan operators.
This is the first key to understanding the apparent paradox.
Crude oil can decrease while refined diesel decreases much less or even remains expensive.
Why can diesel prices behave differently from oil prices?
Because there is refining between crude oil and fuel.
A refinery buys crude oil and transforms it into diesel, gasoline, kerosene, or fuel.
The difference between the price of oil and the price of refined products depends on what are called refining margins..
If refineries producing diesel operate at full capacity, if several units are temporarily shut down, or if European demand suddenly increases, the price of diesel can remain high even if the crude oil price starts to drop.
The opposite can also happen.
This is particularly why diesel and gasoline can move in different directions at the same time. This phenomenon has been particularly visible in Morocco since November 1, 2026: according to prices recorded in several stations in Casablanca, diesel increased by.
50 centimes to about one dirham per liter depending on the distributors, while gasoline conversely decreased by 10 to 30 centimes in several networks.Same oil, same country, same stations — but two different developments.
The reason is precisely that the two fuels each have their own international market.
Second element: Moroccan prices still largely operate on a bi-weekly basis
This is probably the most important explanation for the discrepancy observed by consumers.
Oil prices fluctuate every day, sometimes every minute.
The prices displayed at Moroccan stations typically do not operate this way.
The Competition Council found that operators still largely adjust their rates around the
1st and 16th of each month. This practice comes from the previous price regulation system before liberalization..
Moreover, operators explained to the Council that their calculations rely heavily on
the arithmetic average of international prices observed during the previous fortnight. This is why looking at Brent on a Monday and seeing a gas station's sign on a Tuesday can be misleading..
The price displayed on Tuesday may still largely reflect
what happened in the markets over the past two weeks. A simple example.
Imagine that oil and refined products were very expensive from the 1st to the 12th of the month.
Then, starting from the 13th, prices drop sharply.
The driver would naturally expect to see prices decrease immediately.
But if the price applied during the next revision is based on the
average across the entire fortnight, the twelve days of high prices continue to weigh heavily on the calculation.The recent drop thus only partially appears.
If prices remain low during the following fortnight, its effect becomes much more visible during the next revision.
This is what is called a
smoothing effect. It prevents prices from dramatically changing every day, but it also creates a discrepancy that can sometimes be difficult for consumers to understand..
The Competition Council is questioning this system,
This mechanism is not a regulatory requirement currently imposed on distributors.
The fuel market is liberalized.
The Competition Council emphasizes that it is mainly a
practice inherited from the previous regulation. In 2026, the institution even engaged in discussions with operators on the possibility of evolving this practice..
Why?
Because by almost all continuing to change their prices on the same dates using relatively similar methods, distributors can reduce the flexibility normally expected in a liberalized market.
The Council believes that a pricing structure more connected to the specific conditions of each company — purchasing frequency, contracts, stock levels, or commercial strategy — could enhance competitive dynamics.
Third element: the fuel sold today was sometimes purchased at a higher price.
A gas station does not obviously order its fuel on the international market at the exact moment a driver picks up the pump.
There is an entire supply chain.
The product is bought, transported by ship, unloaded, stored in depots, distributed by truck, and then delivered to the stations.
Operators also have stocks accumulated at different prices.
Suppose a distributor accumulated significant reserves when international diesel prices were high.
If the international price drops today, the fuel already in their tanks was not purchased at the new price;
it was paid for several days or weeks earlier. Thus, the international decrease can take time to traverse the entire supply chain..
The Competition Council specifically cites
stock levels, frequency of supplies, and contractual purchasing conditions among the factors operators should integrate more into their pricing policies. Fourth element: oil is priced in dollars
There is a factor that drivers often forget:
the exchange rate. International hydrocarbons are primarily traded in dollars..
Moroccan consumers pay in dirhams.
Therefore, conversion is necessary.
Imagine that the international price of diesel falls by 5%, but at the same time, the dollar increases significantly against the dirham.
Part of the decrease disappears during conversion.
Conversely, a stronger dirham against the dollar can amplify the relaxation of international prices.
Two periods where oil has exactly the same price in dollars can thus lead to
different costs in dirhams for a Moroccan importer. Fifth element: transporting fuel also comes at a cost.
The international price cited in media does not tell the whole story.
The product still needs to be transported to Morocco.
Maritime freight, insurance, storage, port handling, and land transportation to depots and then to stations are all part of the chain.
A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea can thus have a double effect.
It can raise the price of oil but also increase the costs of shipping and insurance for cargo.
In 2025 already, the Compensation Report by the Ministry of Economy and Finance highlighted that maritime detours related to risks in the Red Sea extended routes and increased freight costs for refined products intended primarily for the European market. Thus, a decrease in oil could be partially absorbed by a rise in logistical costs..
Sixth element: nearly a third or more of the price corresponds to taxes
Even if the cost of imported fuel decreased by 10%, the final price paid by the consumer would not necessarily drop by 10%.
Why?
Because the imported product is only one component of the final price.
In its analysis for the fourth quarter of 2024, the Competition Council thus broke down the pump price:
Component
Diesel
| Gasoline | Purchase Cost | 54% |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Taxes | 31% |
| 38% | Gross Distribution Margins + Retail | 15% |
| 16% | In other words, only slightly more than half of the final price of diesel directly corresponded to the cost of purchasing the product at that time. | For gasoline, this proportion was even less than half. |
This is why directly comparing a 10% drop in oil with an expected 10% drop at the pump almost always leads to an incorrect conclusion.
TIC and VAT: two different mechanisms
Fuel taxation includes two main components.
The
Internal Consumption Tax — TIC
is a set amount per volume. The latest reference levels publicly documented by the Competition Council are approximately 2.42 DH per liter of diesel
and 3.76 DH per liter of gasoline. Thus, this tax does not simply decrease because oil prices drop. The.
VAT,
on the other hand, evolves more with the product's value. It is applied at a rate of 10% in the framework documented by the Council.This tax structure thus acts as a percentage buffer: a significant part of the liter remains relatively stable when the international cost of the product varies.
And what about distributor margins?
They obviously constitute another part of the price.
According to data from the Competition Council for the third quarter of 2025, the average gross margins of the monitored companies were about
1.48 DH per liter for diesel
and 2.10 DH for gasoline. The Council indicated that these levels were close to those observed a year earlier. However, caution is warranted regarding a frequent confusion..
A gross margin
is not a net profit.
It must still fund storage, logistics, salaries, infrastructures, stations, and various operational expenses. This does not mean that margins should not be monitored. This is precisely one of the missions of the Competition Council, which reinforced its oversight of the sector in March 2026 by moving temporarily from a quarterly examination to
a monthly monitoring
of prices, costs, and margins.
Are international prices truly being passed on? Official figures provide an interesting answer: yes, but not always immediately or in the same proportions.
Between March 1st and 16th, 2026, international quotations for diesel had increased by
2.92 DH per liter equivalent, while pump prices had risen on average by 2.03 DH..
Thus, the transmission rate was about 69.5%. During the following fortnight, quotations had further increased by 2.18 DH/L and pump prices by 1.72 DH/L, thus achieving a transmission rate of about 79%..
For gasoline, the phenomenon was different. During these two periods, the increase in pump prices slightly exceeded that of international quotations: respectively,.
+0.17 DH/L then +0.16 DH/L difference. The Council cited possible compensatory mechanisms between products, with diesel representing a significantly larger share of operators' activities..
This observation especially shows why it is dangerous to draw conclusions based solely on the bar price.
Thus, the price may drop… but with a delay. Let's take a hypothetical scenario..
Brent falls by 10% today.
That doesn’t mean:
"Moroccan diesel must drop by 10% tomorrow."
First, it would need to be verified:
if the international price of
refined diesel
has also decreased;
what its average has been over the fortnight;
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how the dollar has changed against the dirham; what price distributors actually paid for their deliveries; what their stock levels are;
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what transportation costs are;
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and how much of the final price is independent of international cost.
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Only after considering all these elements can a serious comparison be made.
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Why do drivers still have the impression that increases come more quickly?
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This perception exists in many countries.
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A sharp rise immediately attracts attention: the driver sometimes sees an additional 50 centimes or a dirham in a single update.
Conversely, a decrease may occur in several steps of 10 or 20 centimes and seem much slower.
In Morocco, the bi-weekly system amplifies this feeling.
However, data from the Competition Council shows that it would be too simplistic to state that
all increases are immediately passed on while all decreases are held back.
The observed mechanisms differ depending on the period and the fuel.
In April 2026, the Council indicated that it had detected
no anti-competitive behavior in the changes it studied..
It estimated, however, that the almost simultaneous revision of rates by operators on the 1st and 16th could limit market flexibility and slow down the transmission of international fluctuations.
A liberalized market... but still retains habits from the previous system. This is ultimately one of the most interesting observations. Morocco has liberalized fuel prices since the end of 2015.
In theory, each distributor can thus set its own price based on costs, stock levels, strategy, and competition.
But a practice inherited from the regulated era persists: the famous adjustments on the
1st and 16th.
The Competition Council now believes that this practice needs to evolve.
A distributor that purchased fuel at a lower cost could, for example, decide to lower its prices before its competitors to attract customers.
Another, holding more expensive stocks, may keep a higher price. It is typically this type of differentiation that should drive competition..
Differences between stations are also starting to become more visible
Records taken in Casablanca on
November 1, 2026,
actually show unusual discrepancies between distributors.
Diesel was displayed at around
16.40 DH/L in some stations and nearly 17 DH/L in others, while gasoline also exhibited several tens of centimes of disparity. These differences are significant enough to make comparisons between stations interesting for drivers.
They also remind of a reality sometimes forgotten: since liberalization, there isn’t necessarily a single national fuel price anymore.Prices vary by distributor, city, and sometimes even station.
So, how long should one wait after a drop in oil prices?
There is no automatic delay. But in the current functioning of the Moroccan market,.
a fortnight constitutes a particularly important timeframe
since operators largely continue to use the international averages from the previous period.
A sustained drop in refined product prices should thus start to become visible during subsequent revisions.
But if the drop lasts only three days before prices rebound, its effect on the fortnight's average can be very weak. This is the whole difference between an instantaneous price
displayed on a financial screen and
a true average supply cost
actually borne by a business. Thus, the real indicator to watch isn’t solely Brent. To determine if a price drop at the pump is likely to happen in Morocco, observing oil remains useful. But it is only the first indicator. Ideally, one should simultaneously monitor:
the refined diesel and gasoline prices in Europe, the dollar against the dirham, freight costs, and trends over multiple days rather than just the oil price during a single session.
This is precisely the method used by the Competition Council when seeking to ascertain whether international variations have been realistically reflected in Morocco.
In summary: the pump price is a chain, not a button.
When the barrel drops, there is no mechanism that instantly transmits this drop to the illuminated sign at the gas station.
Between the two lie:
refining, finished product quotes, purchasing contracts, the dollar, maritime transport, stock levels, taxation, distribution margins, and finally competition between stations.
In Morocco, there’s an additional determining feature:
the bi-weekly revisions inherited from the previous regulated system.
This mechanism explains much of the discrepancy observed by drivers.
However, it does not mean that every difference between the international market and the pump is automatically justified.
This is precisely why the Competition Council is now monitoring prices, purchasing costs, and industry margins more closely. The real question is not just:
"Oil has dropped, why hasn’t diesel dropped today?"
But rather:
"Have the international prices of refined fuels decreased sustainably, and has this decrease been properly reflected in subsequent revisions?"
It is this comparison — much more than the single daily Brent price — that truly reveals whether the price paid at the pump in Morocco is consistent with the evolution of international markets.
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