A more aggressive posture to mask internal difficulties
In recent weeks, the Algerian government has ramped up hostile statements concerning the Sahara issue. This hardening occurs within a sensitive internal context: economic tensions, widespread social unrest, and loss of regional influence. In this climate, the regime appears to rely on nationalist rhetoric to consolidate its internal base, as it has often done during delicate periods.
A diplomatic repositioning under pressure
Externally, Algeria seems worried about the gradual shift of the African stage towards Moroccan positions. The opening of consulates in the Southern provinces, Morocco's growing strategic partnerships, and renewed support from African states are undermining Algeria's diplomatic stance. The recent statements aim to remind that Algeria intends to remain a key player – even as the regional dynamics increasingly play against it.
Attempts to mobilize certain international allies
Algeria is also trying to re-engage some international contacts by promoting a narrative of 'threatened regional stability.' However, this strategy struggles to convince: Algeria's traditional partners are adopting a stance of cautious neutrality, while new geopolitical balances are reshaping alliances in North and West Africa.
A message directed at the Polisario, weakened and divided
The increasingly fiery statements also carry an internal dimension for the separatist camp. Confronted with disagreements, a lack of prospects, and diminished international support, the Polisario struggles to maintain minimal cohesion. Algeria seeks to offer a symbolic support signal, in the absence of a concrete strategy.
A strategy that reflects more nervousness than vision
Overall, Algeria's posture shows less of a long-term strategy and more of a defensive reaction. Morocco has consolidated its diplomatic gains, expanded its economic partnerships, and strengthened its African ties. In response, Algeria feels like a power trying to keep up without being able to influence the regional dynamics.
