For the past two years, purchasing power has emerged as one of the main concerns of Moroccan households. The surge in food prices in 2022 and 2023, exacerbated by drought and international tensions, heavily impacted budgets. In 2023, inflation reached an average of over 6%, with double-digit increases for certain basic products. By 2024, the official picture changes: the annual average inflation drops to around 0.9%, due to declining food prices and the gradual normalization of some logistical costs. However, the sense of suffocation persists in households.
Economic surveys show a clear paradox. On one hand, the consumer confidence index has improved, rising from just over 46 points to more than 54 points in a year, indicating a relative optimism about the future. On the other hand, nearly 76% of households report that their living standards have deteriorated over the past twelve months, while less than 7% believe they have improved. A significant proportion also continues to think that it is not a good time to purchase durable goods, reflecting caution and sometimes fear of incurring debt due to perceived insufficient incomes.
Regarding prices, the decline in overall inflation does not mean a return to pre-crisis levels. Many food products have experienced significant price increases between 2019 and 2023, such as meat, which saw prices rise by about 20% over a few years, and these increases have not really reversed. Additionally, there are the effects of seven years of nearly uninterrupted drought, which have affected livestock, increased production costs, and led to exceptional decisions, such as the royal call to forego the sacrifice for Eid to relieve the most vulnerable households.
On a macroeconomic level, household consumption has shown a certain dynamism. In the second quarter of 2024, it increased by about 3.1% in volume after a nearly stagnant year prior. This recovery is due to a slowdown in the inflation rate, but also to the effect of several social measures: gradual expansion of social protection, targeted direct aid, and salary increases across various sectors.
The minimum wage is another key element of purchasing power. According to the social agreement concluded in 2024, the minimum wage in industry, commerce, and services is set to rise by 10% in two stages, the first being a 5% increase effective January 1, 2025. The gross monthly minimum wage now exceeds 3,260 dirhams, up from around 3,110 dirhams previously. In agriculture, the minimum agricultural wage follows a similar trajectory with staged increases in 2025 and 2026. These adjustments improve the nominal income of low-wage workers, but many economists view them as merely catching up with the inflation shock of previous years.
Civil servants will also benefit from a gradual improvement in their purchasing power. Between 2021 and 2026, the public payroll is expected to grow by about 37%, rising from 140 to nearly 193 billion dirhams, driven by salary revisions, promotions, and the creation of new positions, particularly in education and health. But these aggregated figures do not capture everything: at the individual level, gains can remain modest, particularly for young professionals and urban households facing high rents and rising service costs.
Ultimately, the assessment of purchasing power is mixed. Macroeconomic indicators send signals of normalization: inflation is generally under control, consumption is recovering, and minimum and public wages are being increased. However, household sentiment remains bleak, especially among lower-income groups and in rural areas. Past price hikes, the persistence of high fixed expenses, and employment uncertainty maintain a sense of social fragility. This gap between statistics and everyday life fuels political debate over the effectiveness of public policies in supporting purchasing power.
